María Menchú-Maldonado, Ph.D., a postdoctoral research scholar at North Carolina State University, and her team developed a forecasting framework that predicts the risk of algal blooms in the Caloosahatchee River and Estuary a day in advance. Their approach features two models: one designed for conditions where lake releases are the primary water source and another for when watershed runoff dominates. The result? Their lake-based model was highly accurate, making it a valuable tool for managing blooms linked to Lake Okeechobee and supporting daily decision-making.

1. How can water managers use these models to make real-time decisions?

When designing the model, our purpose was to help with that first step in the decision-making process, the step where uncertainty is high, the future is unclear, and time is limited. The model can help managers assess the risk of an algal bloom occurring at the head of the Caloosahatchee River and Estuary the next day, based on current and past hydrologic conditions. 

2. Why is this research relevant for the ordinary person in Florida?

When thinking of Florida, it is impossible not to think of its beaches, wildlife and the Everglades. All of this grandiosity is constantly threatened by pollution, but it’s not just the environment and particularly water that is at risk; the economy and livelihoods are, too. This is where research like ours becomes important. Those responsible for providing and preserving water resources need every available tool and piece of knowledge to make the best possible decisions, ensuring a safe and comfortable daily life for all.

3. Can you talk about what sets your forecasting approach apart from existing models that predict algal blooms in waterways?

I would say its simplicity. The model relies on data that is routinely collected from monitoring campaigns, making it easy to implement without the need for specialized or hard-to-obtain information. It is structured as a simple diagram, allowing users to estimate the risk of an algal bloom happening and quickly decide if additional efforts, resources or attention are needed.

4. How accurate are your models at predicting blooms, and how do they compare to more complex models?

Based on statistics, one of the models (estimating bloom risk during lake discharges) shows high accuracy, while the other (estimating bloom risk during watershed runoff) has lower accuracy, which is not uncommon in the environmental field. We were happily surprised with how well the lake model performed. Each model is designed with different objectives and accuracy levels in mind. While our model was not intended to fully capture the complexity of all the processes leading to an algal bloom, it is highly competitive when compared to other models with similar objectives.

5. What inspired you to become a researcher, and what sparked your interest in this particular field?

I have always been a curious person, but being born and raised in Guatemala, a country where research is not common, becoming a researcher was not part of my life plan. The path that brought me here was neither easy nor straightforward at all. I have always loved water — the sound of ocean waves breaking on the beach, or how water runs in a fountain, which brings me a sense of calm and security. One day, while working as a civil engineer, I witnessed an algal bloom in Lake Atitlán, in my country. It struck me deeply and prompted me to seek answers. That moment marked the beginning of my incredible journey, which has taken me to other countries and allowed me to meet amazing people — something that would not have been possible without the support of scholarships.

6. What is the most rewarding part of your work for you?

For me, there are two parts that I love the most. One is working with the research team, listening to all the discussions and ideas these amazing people put on the table, which help me see different sides of the same story and immerse me in topics I never imagined before. The other is when all these data and numbers “open their heart” and start sharing their story with me. I like to think that they have a lot to say to those who have enough patience and commitment to listen.

Read the full paper at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479725003032.